Sinocentury: Recent Comments

Comment on Can the Market Recover from “The Flash Crash?”

Banks Halloran — Fri, 28 May 2010 20:08:38 GMT

Whoa - nice new look. Easier to read.

Quick follow up question:

1. I'd like to hear your thoughts on owning GLD vs actual gold. So far, the etf seems to track the underlying pretty closely. But, owning GLD is not the same as owning gold, so I'm curious as to what you think.

Comment on Market March Madness

geezlouies — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 08:00:38 GMT

Very insightful commentary on the market. Hope to hear more from you and Gregory in the coming days.

Comment on My opinion on the markets has not materially changed since March 2009

Gold Bullion — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 06:50:36 GMT

I love to read posts that are very interesting especially those topics that are about financial matters, business and stock market conditions. It is good to read those posts for they broaden our knowledge about different issue concerning the business world. Thanks a lot.

Comment on Good bye Dubai, Good bye Rally

geezlouies — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 12:24:03 GMT

Welcome home! How was your trip to the Middle East? Any new developments in the international relations department?

Comment on Nationalize Now, or Forever Hold Your Peace

charles guest — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 21:08:32 GMT

i am a bit more optomistic. .full recovery may take 20 years, but i think we will hit bottom within the next 5 to 10 years and then begin a slow recovery. but no doubt it will take a long time to get over this debt bubble which is the biggest in our history at 360% of gdp. we have borrowed from far into the future.

Comment on U.S. markets rally more than 11% today, marking the biggest one-day percentage gain ever!

charles guest — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 23:57:12 GMT

i agree. previous support around the 1100 level now becomes resistance. today's rally should be viewed as a shifting of focus. focus until now has been depression. i think that has been taken off the table by the actions taken by government. severe recession is still on the table. that will impact profits and that will become the next focus of the stock market. recent lows will be tested. lets just hope they hold.

Comment on Buy S&P500 NOW!

charles guest — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 14:05:20 GMT

ok, in the midst of panic it is time to take a deep breath, relax, and be logical. the smartest thing i have heard lately was larry lindsey on cnbc this morning.
he looked at ratios of s&p to both gdp and incomes at previous market lows in
1932 and 2002. the same ratios would yield an s&p of just under 800 and dow
7200 today. if you have not sold yet, don't do so. if you have cash , get ready
to buy. when it comes, it will come quickly , so be ready. that is my story and
i am sticking to it. you don't have invest all of your investable funds at that
level. prudence would say to invest half and keep half to invest later. if the
markets don't hold these levels things could get really nasty. if they do hold
these levels, we will get a good bounce of 10 to 20% and then retest these levels
within 6 months. of course, i could be wrong, and the end of time may be coming,
but if it does, nothing matters anyway.

Comment on Buy S&P500 NOW!

Kongzi — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 22:00:27 GMT

Gao Xiang, what are your thoughts on deflation/inflation over the coming years?

Comment on Congratulations, President Obama!

Banks — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:35:20 GMT

Gregory - my comments from our earlier conversation are cut and copied below. Just to avoid confusion - while I believe McCain's mortgage rescue plan is ridiculous, I never have and never will consider voting for Obama. He is a stereotypical, "us versus them" populist. His entire campaign is based on first convincing Americans that they are downtrodden, in despair, and most importantly, helpless and powerless to do anything to change their circumstance. Step 2 is to convince Americans that he, and only he, is ready willing and able to help them. He's managed to do this without any regard for reality of the situation. For instance, he's stated that he will follow Bin Laden wherever he goes to hunt him down and kill him, including Pakistan. Sounds great, gets people fired up, etc. Only problem is that one country dropping bombs within the borders of another sovereign country is typically frowned upon, particularly when the dropper is trying to court the droppee as an ally. He has no spine - none whatsoever - and he will prove to be one of the worst "leaders" our country has ever seen.

The disclaimer is a bit longwinded and overdramatic, but I just wanted to make sure that there was no impression, none whatsoever, that I would ever consider casting a vote for Obama. That said, here's my thoughts on the McCain bailout plan...

It's an awful, awful, awful proposition.

there are plenty of people out there who 1) didn't buy houses they haven't saved enough money - me; 2) bought a reasonable house at a reasonable price on a standard mortgage and sold at the right time - you; 3) bought a reasonable house at a reasonable price, didn't sell, scared as all heck about the price now, but doing the responsible thing and continuing to take all steps necessary to make payments - several of my friends.

his plan is ridiculous in that 1) it would encourage people to default, thereby increasing foreclosed houses, which increases inventory on the market, which drives prices down 2) encourages people to default on the loans and have them written down to be restructured, thereby forcing more bank writedowns and bank failures, further depressing confidence in our system; and 3) completely destroys all faith that anyone had in contracts and sets the precendent that if you enter a contract with an able and willing counterparty, then later than contract could be voided, to your detriment, if the contract is deemed to be politically unpopular. Mortgage rates increase to >10%.

the only thing i can hang my hat on there is that i don't think that bill would ever go through. i think he's just trying to get elected. unfortunately, i don't think he will.

again - we're in deep, deep trouble when obama gets elected. america is done - we're soft, we've lost our competitive edge, and we're more concerned with being "fair" than we are with being the best. obama is the final nail in the coffin. welcome to socialism.

Comment on And then there were none???

Audrey Brown — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:38:57 GMT

Great article. Very insightful.